A reminder of the meeting in the Strutt Centre.

The meeting is a chance for bus passengers to meet bus providers and councillors to discuss the current situation where buses are cancelled and many routes downgraded from hourly to two-hourly. We also have representatives from the Women's Institute, Accessible Belper and Transition Belper (Transport & Travel group TB,T&T) to speak about the impact on the lives of specific user groups.

This meeting is not to apportion blame but to understand the problems faced by bus operators and to explore possible immediate solutions.

The basic meeting agenda is:

1. A greeting by the chair (that's me and I promise to be brief)
2. The panel of bus operators and councillors to introduce themselves.
3. Women's Institute, Accessible Belper and TB,T&T to do likewise.
4. Then questions from the floor to be answered by our guests.
5. Conclusion of meeting to indicate next steps.

Many have emailed saying that they would like to attend but are unable because they have no evening bus service so there is a possibility of a follow up zoom meeting that they can attend.

Public Meeting in Belper to discuss bus cancelations -Thursday February 22nd 19:00

Public Meeting to discuss bus cancelations

Thursday 22nd February at 19:00

Strutt Centre, Derby Road, Belper DE56 1UU

As an Amber Valley Borough Councillor I am receiving a lot of contact from people who have experienced buses not turning up. Other councillors tell me that they too are getting complaints so the issue is widespread across many routes. That is why a public meeting has been called, a chance to meet bus operators and councils to discuss the problem and, hopefully, to chart a way forward. So far I am aware of ongoing problems with the Sixes, Sevens, Nines, 138, 141, 147. 

Invitees that have accepted the invitation to the meeting are:

• Trent Barton Buses (a company director and an operations manager)
• Derbyshire Community Transport (board member)
• The leader of Amber Valley Borough Council
• Belper Town Council
• Women's Institute (currently have a bus campaign)
• Accessible Belper
• Transition Belper (transport & Travel Group)

Derbyshire County Council have been invited as well as other bus companies and it is to be hoped that they will be able to attend.

All welcome at the meeting

Community Transport and Belper Town Council

 Belper Town Council (BTC) has for many years been a supporter of Derbyshire Community Transport (DCT), a charity that, as it says on its website:

At Derbyshire Community Transport we believe that no one, regardless of age, ability/disability, financial status or domestic location should be prevented from enjoying a full life because of lack of access to transport.

To do this we run services aimed at getting people out and about. We are focussed and passionate about ensuring everyone has access to transport that suits their individual needs.

Our ambition is to be at the heart of the community we serve and to act as the means by which local people are able to participate fully in their local communities.

Link to Derbyshire Community Transport website

The Car Club

The Car Club Ford Torneo outside St.Peter's Church

When Labour councillors took control of Belper Town Council in 2019 we realised the potential of community transport for a town that was inundated with private
vehicles and gradually losing bus services. This trend had to be reversed. The pandemic threw a spanner in the works but emerging from lockdown opportunities to improve public transport started to emerge. We had been very concerned that the number of available wheelchair accessible taxis had halved in Amber Valley from 28 to 14 and wheelchair users were reporting problems in getting to hospital appointments or other venues. Because BTC had strengthened ties with DCT with one of our councillors joining DCT as a trustee board member we started a dialogue so that when the possibility of offering transport for people with disabling conditions came up we were fully supportive. What is now known as the Car Club, backed by a group of volunteer drivers and administered by DCT from their HQ in Marehay has just started. Two vehicles have been purchased, one, capable of taking full size powered wheelchairs whilst the other is an electric car modified with swivel front seats to aid getting in and out. Both are based on the Coppice car park and can be hired by the hour for £5, with or without a driver as long as you are registered as a member of the club (annual fee of £20).  A really cheap alternative method of transport. Belper Labour councillors see this as a first step and want to increase the number of volunteer drivers and build up a regular group of passengers and make this scheme a real success. Belper is one of only 4 towns in the country to offer a car club such as this. Details of the Car Club can be found here 

Bus route opportunities

The new 147 service in King Street

Derbyshire County Council has steadily withdrawn support for local bus services and this has brought transport poverty to many in our region. Covid lockdowns did not help matters as bus passengers were forced to stay at home and, with restrictions being lifted the numbers using public transport have been slow to return. Many commercial bus operators felt unable to continue on lightly used services and it is in these circumstances that Derbyshire Community Transport stepped in to keep the wheels turning. They took over the 143 and 147 routes; merging them to operated between Belper King Street, through Ambergate to Ripley Market Place. Labour Councillors entered into consultation with DCT and suggested that the 147 could be extended into Parks Estate. DCT tested the idea and now we have a tree times a day service, as described by DCT:

• Route 143 combines the old 143 and 147 routes creating additional links 

• Improved service between Ripley and Belper – 3 return journeys a day 

• New link between Street Lane, Marehay and Ripley to Belper and Babington Hospital 

• Three new round trips between Belper Town Centre and Parkside via Babington Hospital 

• Improved timetable from Street Lane, Marehay and Ripley to Sainsburys

Here is the link to the 147 timetable

Belper Labour councillors are already planning more services to provide a "town service" linking all estates to the Leisure Centre, Town Centre and other amenities, from Belper Lane End to Bargate, Laund Hill to Parks Estate ............. and to run in the evenings and all day Sunday.  You can only break free from private car use if you have fully comprehensive public transport alternatives. We look forward to exploring the opportunity to invest in a flexible, on demand electric town bus service fit for the 21st century.

Driverless electric bus as trialled in Inverness 

 

Car Parks in Belper

 There seems to be a lot of opinion being aired on social media regarding the issue of so-called "free parking" in Belper. It is important in such matters to distinguish facts from non-researched belief and this post attempts to provide that factual base. The main contentions are that businesses will be harmed and that poor people will be impacted adversely but first let's look at why charges are being introduced.

Coppice car park charges.

Referring to the Belper Town Council website provides us with a succinct account of their reason for introducing charges: https://www.belpertowncouncil.gov.uk/news/2023/03/coppice-car-park. We see that the cost in business rates is £22,500 per year (and I know that when these rates were applied by central government the charges were backdated to 2017. So not only does BTC have to pay the current years charge but make good the backdated amount which more than doubles the amount for, I think, three years (though business rates were suspended for one year during the Covid pandemic). The council states, "As a council, we believe it is fairer that users of the car park pay for their usage rather than this cost being supported by everyone in the town regardless of car ownership."

The suggested charges are shown below compared to other car park charges in the town:

You can find the AVBC car park information at: https://www.ambervalley.gov.uk/roads-and-parking/parking/

It should be noted that there is still more consultation required before charges are fixed and conditions applied. I can see that a change to the 4 hour charge on the Coppice may be anticipated because it stands out as the only increase over a charge in the other car parks. There has to be some clarity on the "over 4 hours" charge at the Coppice - does this mean 24 hours? If it does then that is superb value for those who park there and walk down to catch a train. Compare £2.50 with the charge of £14.50 at Derby Railway Station.

There will have to be some thought about season tickets and how they line up with AVBC offer but 99p a day that is hard to beat.

Finally, nearby residents will be offered parking permits as they currently depend upon the Coppice for longer term parking. This is a good step but which streets are referred to as "nearby" needs to be determined.

Will businesses and shops be harmed? 

There is a lot of misinformation being put online at the moment, some claims seeming incredible. I read that 97% of Belper residents were opposed to Coppice car park charges and that 86% of businesses were against it. I don't know anyone who has taken part in such a survey. When offered claims like this the Office for National Statistics advise that all evidence of such a survey should be disclosed. For example, 100% of the people I live with claimed that they were my wife. I think you get the picture.

As to businesses being polled; Belper Town Council invited local shops and businesses to take part in the initial round of consultation and only 2 responded. I can well understand that most shops are not too concerned as the sum total of car park spaces is well over a thousand (600 between AVBC & BTC plus all the supermarket car parks). The figure is probably much more as I have no hardened data for the spaces at Morrisons, Aldi and the Co-op. I estimate that the Coppice car park constitutes about a sixth of the total number of spaces available. If we factor in the AVBC residents permit and the number of folk who access the town via public transport or on foot/bicycle then the percentage impact of Coppice  car park charges on business is negligible. You have to keep a sense of proportion.

There are academic studies that look at the effect of withdrawing so-called free parking from town centres and I link to them here:

Leeds University - Parking Charges

Institute for Transport Studies

OECD - The Environmental effects of parking

These  three studies clearly show that charging for parking does not harm business activity and can offer clear commercial, environmental and health benefits. Below is one of a number of summary panels which are included in the Leeds University study (apologies for the quality of the image - I used screen snip)

Which brings us to:

Impoverished motorists

Sadly, the number of impoverished motorists has grown over the last few years as incomes have not kept up with the rising cost of living, exacerbated by a steep rise in inflation over the past few months. Let's look in more depth.

Pensioners in general have the time to shop and park using their AVBC residents permits and for a modest sum can do so after 14:00. They also have the use of a Gold Card and can travel on buses free after 09:30.

Household deprivation - Referring to the data now available from the 2021 Census we get a range of data to help us assess the number of motorists who may be impacted by proposed Coppice car park charges. For a start, 15% of households do not own a vehicle. Looking at the socio-economic data indicates, (if we assume levels 13 and below could be counted as impoverished) that there is a potential for 22% of people between the age of 16 and 64 could be impoverished. This does include 4.5% classified as students. I know that income data included in NP4B (Neighbourhood Plan for Belper) showed a potential for 14% of households to be below the poverty threshold (below 60% of current median (or typical) household income, taking into account the number of people living in the household. This does of course include all ages.

So how many motorists are impoverished? Sadly, many are but how many impoverished motorists use the Coppice car park ......... that we don't know. There are alternatives as I hope this article has shown however, some form of initiative to assist those dependent on cheap parking to gain an annual season ticket would be beneficial to ......... how many we don't know.

Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/customprofiles/build/

In conclusion

There are so many facts left out of this post. So much data from the 2021 Census or the Department of Works and Pensions area income data ................ or the Department for Transport annual traffic flow surveys  and for this you could look at  the NP4B on the Belper Town Council Website, specifically Addendum 5 Traffic survey and parking or Addendum 6 - Public Transport which does include data from the 2011 census showing that 33% of the 10th or lowest socio-economic households have the use of a single car.

You see, this is the sort of evidenced information that is needed if a true understanding is to be made of issues such as this. We live in the twenty first century and there should be no place for biased and deliberately misleading information to be spread on social media. 

EMR announce the resumption of peak hour through services, Matlock - Nottingham - Matlock from Monday 12th December 2022

 EMR have announced that peak hour through services, Matlock - Nottingham - Matlock will resume from Monday 12th December 2022. This announcement has been made by Will Rogers, Managing Director of East Midlands Railway.

He states:

"Services will operate in both directions during the morning and evening peaks, Monday to Friday – calling at all stations. As a result, we will also be reinstating hourly peak time services at Spondon and Attenborough. These services have been chosen as we believe they will provide the biggest benefit to customers while also being mindful of our levels of resource and the performance impact – particularly around Nottingham. Online journey planners are in the process of being updated and timetables will follow soon. In the meantime, I have included an outline timetable below. There may still be minor amends to the times below as a result of further validation so please continue to check before travelling.

Nottingham – Matlock 

Depart: 0653 Arrive: 0807 

Depart: 0753 Arrive: 0908 

Depart: 0854 Arrive: 1007 

Depart: 1554 Arrive: 1706 

Depart: 1654 Arrive: 1806 

Depart: 1754 Arrive: 1856 

Matlock - Nottingham 

Depart: 0617 Arrive: 0722 

Depart: 0712 Arrive: 0815 

Depart: 0813 Arrive: 0922 

Depart: 1515 Arrive: 1618 

Depart: 1615 Arrive: 1723

Our aspiration remains to introduce direct services between Matlock and Nottingham throughout the day and on Saturdays as well as further services on other parts of the EMR Regional network. However, that remains subject to the allocation of the necessary funding, maintaining levels of performance (punctuality) and the delivery of additional rolling stock. We will continue to provide updates as these workstreams progress in the months to come. I hope you will welcome this step forward and we look forward to the services resuming in December. 

 Kind regards, Will Rogers Managing Director East Midlands Railway"

Well done EMR for listening to passengers, particularly those who depend upon the service to get to work and college. We were promised a positive response at the meeting arranged by the Mayor of Belper with EMR management in March at the Strutt Centre. Special thanks to Laura Etheridge whose help made that meeting possible. We wanted a full restoration of service but all present accepted that peak hour trains should be a priority. 

Derbyshire Tories public transport plans - Less for More

 The woeful performance of Debyshire County Council (DCC) Tories in dealing with the cancelation of the 71 & 72 bus routes after Christmas has prompted a re-emergence of BelperStuff blog. This is yet another example of Tories claiming big investment into transport needs when the reality is cut after cut. The best way to illustrate this is to follow a timeline through the years of austerity. Yes this is the root cause of cuts to services, the year by year shrinking of the grant from central government to local authorities. The Tories took control in Westminster in 2010, at a time when the economy was starting to recover from the global credit crunch, with the promise that the country would have a balanced budget by May 2015. In the 2019 election the latest Tory prediction was that a balanced budget would be acheived by 2023 .... or would that be 2025.

2011 - More for Less ................. or .............. Less for More

Derbyshire County Council dutifully followed the party line and adopted policies reflecting the philosophy of austerity. This meant cuts to Derbyshire services but strategy papers tried to put a positive spin by claiming that efficiencies would be found to enable a bright shiny future under the Tories.

Derbyshire Local Transport Plan 2011 - 2026 

This plan was full of definitions of how decisions and policies would be determined but very short on key investment objectives. Mostly concerned with roads and potholes the only tangible policy initiative for public transport would be "Public transport (bus and rail) information"; found on page 4 of the document with nothing else of note in the following 121 pages. So the Tory promise for public transport over 15 years would be to improve information.

2017 - Tory County Council Election manifesto promise

"We will reverse Labour's cuts and restore important access to health and social care, shopping and social activities". 

Six years later and the cuts to services following the Tory Westminster government inspired austerity measures and the starvation of funds available to local authorities, meant that bus services would gradually lose county council support funding. The county had become Labour controlled in 2013 and in the run up to the 2017 election provided an analysis of the effect government funding cuts would have on Derbyshire services. The Tory manifesto response to this was to blame Labour for the cuts.

2018 - Derbyshire Tory cuts to bus services

The Tories won back control of DCC in 2017 and by 2018 were making savage cuts to bus services. This is evidenced inThe future of the bus report , a paper produced by the Campaign for Better Transport in 2019. Below is an extract from that report:

The report clearly shows during 2018/19  Derbyshire Tories were complicit in cutting 26 bus routes; that's 27% of all routes in England outside London. Further to this the report indictes a reduction of 38% in the budget for Derbyshire School transport and that the overall budget for bus subsidy was cut by 60%.

2021 - Derbyshire Tory Manifesto

The only mention concerning buses in the Tory 2021 manifesto is that there would be free companion bus passes for disabled public transport pass holders. No mention of reversal of Tory cuts. The promise of 2017 just did not happen and in the 2021 election the failure to honour that pledge was conveniently forgotten.

-----------------------------------------

So now we turn to what was said by the Leader of DCC following the electoral victory in 2021. - delivery-pace-will-be-our-mantra-council-leader-cllr-barry-lewis-sets-out-aspirational-vision and here are listed key passages from the DCC AGM speech: 

"I am immensely proud of the achievements of the last four years

We know too that there is going to be significant change and hopefully investment coming for public transport, because something transformative needs to happen in this space to ensure we can meet our carbon reduction targets, not just locally but nationally.  As an administration we’ve already committed to working with the Peak District National Park Authority to trial and deliver innovative public transport solutions there. 

 our innovative Levelling up for Young People scheme, something I’m particularly keen on.  It is sadly the case that too many young people in Derbyshire, mainly young white males in our instance but also young white females to a lesser extent find themselves disconnected from education, educational opportunities and therefore from the world of work and possibly ending up getting involved in illegal or criminal behaviours eventually.

We’re also keen to get on with delivering our commitment for Companion Bus Passes for disabled public transport users, an important scheme that will make a big impact on the lives of some disabled people in Derbyshire.  It’s not just about the big things but about looking at where we can make a real difference to the lives of Derbyshire residents".

I will finish by saying we have a new mantra for the next four years “Delivery at Pace”  

-------------------------------

Welcome to the paralell universe inhabited by the entitled Derbyshire Tories. Barry Lewis is proud of being the leader of the county that cut more bus services than anywhere else in England. At least there is an acknowledgement that there has to be investment in public transport but 7 months later, when the resolve of Barry is tested by the unsustainability of the 71 & 72 bus routes, Derbyshire Tories can find no investment; their only concern being carbon reduction targets. Is this a hint of how that will be acheived .............. less buses equals less carbon in the atmosphere? Do they not realise that with every bus that is cut from service there will be an increase in the number of cars travelling on our roads?

Barry - if you are serious about carbon reduction then put your money into public transport.

(sorry, that should be our money raised from taxes)

Barry then goes on to comment on the "Levelling Up for Young People Scheme" which will address the disconnect with "education, educational opportunities and therefore with the world of work." The first priority for young people to access anything is to be able to get to where those opportunities exist. Cutting bus routes stops this sort of initiative dead in it's tracks. 

Barry does however point out that these nebulous Tory ambitions will be subject to "Delivery at Pace". What good is that catchphrase for those who become isolated and disenfranchised from normal opportunities of life, because their bus services have been cut. If they have no car then the alternative is to go by foot; for them it will be:

Delivery at Walking Pace

Bus services lost in Belper - We expect better from our county council

The recent announcement by Notts & Derby Bus company that they could not make the 71 and 72 routes between Belper and Derby pay or even recruit enough drivers came as a real shock for residents who depend upon these services to get to work, college or school; to shop or have an acceptable level of cultural or social life. Derby Telegraph December 1st article

Many in the community contacted Derbyshire County Council to urge them to step in and this they have done though the solution that has been agreed for the continuance of service past the threatened deadline of Christmas Eve is far from ideal. Ther Derby Telegraph reported the 7's being replaced from 29th December by an extension of the 137/8 Langley Mill <> Belper service which would allow passengers to access Derby via a connection with the 59/59A Derby <> Shipley service but in reality the best routing will be via  "the nines" at Kilburn Toll Bar. BelperStuff checked the Derbyshire County Council website news to check for accuracy but here too it states that a combination of 137/8 and 59/59A services will replace the 71/72 services when they are discontinued we must hope that more definitive information will emerge in the next few days.

Timetables/ 137& 138 Belper<>Langley

Timetables/ 59/59A

Timetables/ the nines Derby <> Ripley etc.

Aside from passengers from Holbrook, Bargate and Parks areas losing their direct link with Derby this effectively means that on a school day the first bus into Belper from the Parks will be at 09:49. The loss of the 72 service impacts badly on not just the Parks Estate etc but also Mount Pleasant.

There are still questions to be answered:

• Where are passengers expected to change between the 138 and the 59 services?
• When will an integrated timetable be available?
• Will through ticketing be allowed if passengers combine the 138 and the more obvious 9 services?

Belper estates still lack services in the evenings or on a Sunday.

This is hopefully an interim situation

The routes being lost are:

 Credit to moovitapp for these maps

The loss of the 71 and 72 services has happened despite promises by Derbyshire Tories to protect public transport in the county. In 2011 they proudly announced "more for less" in their Derbyshire Local Transport Plan 2011 - 2026. Cancelation of bus routes is what they are actually delivering. BelperStuff will explore the Tory record on public transport in Derbyshire in the next blog post - Less for More.

Why are there no trains in Derby this summer?

Belper train passengers will already be aware of the engineering works in Derby Station this summer and the bad news is that it will be getting worse before it gets any better. London trains reduced to one an hour (then none for seven days), No trains to Chesterfield or Sheffield, No Cross Country trains to north or south, the Matlock train only runs to Derby (later, no service at all for over a month). For detailed information about dates and bus replacements go to https://www.derby2018.co.uk/.

Travel in 1850 (Old Station at Derby, North Midland Railway)

Cuthbert Hamilton Ellis (1909–1987)

National Railway Museum

So why is this happening?

Derby Station was opened in 1839 as the southern terminus of the North Midland Railway linking Leeds, Rotherham, Chesterfield and Derby (Sheffield was added soon after). Since that time railway routes and services have developed to a degree that would be unrecognisable to the early railway pioneers; Derby station growing to accommodate the extra traffic with additional platforms and tracks. Unfortunately, all this growth created a bottleneck to the south of the station, a two track section through which all passenger and many freight trains had to run (marked on the diagram below with a black circle). It is the elimination of this bottleneck and the installation of modern signalling that is being undertaken this summer.

To understand this bottleneck I have marked the 3 distinctive routes and services as:

• Red = Cross Country services running southwest to northeast.
• Brown = Services that run between Nottingham and Birmingham (reversing in Derby)
• Green = East Midlands trains serving London, Chesterfield and Sheffield.
• The Matlock <> Newark and the Derby <> Crewe trains have been omitted  to aid clarity.

If all goes to plan the work will be completed by 7th October with all trains running normally from the following day. The new layout separates the three principal routes at the southern end of the station which will have a major, beneficial effect on timekeeping and capacity. Passengers will find that their trains may well be routed through different platforms:

• Red: Cross Country trains will now use platforms 1 and 2.
• Brown: Nottingham <> Birmingham trains will use platforms 3 and 4
• Green: East Midlands London <> Sheffield trains using platforms 5 and 6 but it should be noted that what has become platform 5 was formally platform 6. Platform 6 is now located on the newly built island platform. (The old platform 5 was a south facing bay platform that has now been taken out of use). 
• Matlock train: There seems to be no reason why the arrival in Derby should not be on the new platform 6 but the train to Matlock may well be moved from platform 2b to 3, 4 or 5 Time will tell.
• Freights will no doubt continue to be threaded through the station using the most favourable route at that time but we will no longer see freights from the north destined for the Birmingham route being looped on the Pride Park side of the station.

A wasted opportunity to electrify the route

The original intention was to electrify the East Midlands route through Derby during this blockade, in time for the St.Pancras to Sheffield services to change to electric trains by Autumn 2019. The governments cancellation of this scheme is particularly galling. The blockade would have been an ideal time to electrify the route up to Ambergate but now this will not happen.

I have heard it said that heritage problems such as the bridges at Belper were a deciding factor in the cancellation but this was not so (previous BelperStuff post on why the East Midlands electrification was cancelled). There are many ways in which the railway could have been electrified through Belper and Ambergate with no undo expenditure or adverse effect on heritage assets. What a wasted opportunity.

Finally

Don't forget:

• No direct trains to London between 13th and 19th August (bus to East Midlands Parkway from Derby station) otherwise it's one train per hour up to October 7th.
• Matlock train does not run to Nottingham and worse, does not run at all from 25th August to October 7th (again a substitute bus service)
• No rail services between Derby and Nottingham, Crewe, Birmingham, Sheffield until 2nd September (yup you've guessed it - replacement buses)

Hopefully I've made no mistakes and all the above information is accurate but don't forget that reliable updates on travel ca be gleaned from East Midlands Trains here or go to National Rail Enquiries.

HS2 will reduce number of East Midlands trains through Derby

A 2015 BelperStuff post explored the claim of Alistair Darling that building HS2 would drain money away from the existing rail network. He was rubbished by the then transport secretary Patrick McLaughlin who eventually went on to postpone the East Midlands electrification. The sorry saga of political shenanigans has taken the odd twist since then, first reinstatement of electrification but eventually cancelled by the incoming transport secretary Chris Grayling once the 2017 general election was safely out of the way.

I suspect Alistair Darling of possessing a crystal ball because the reasons finally admitted to by Grayling for cancellation was that the cost benefit ratio for electrification of the Midland Mainline (MML) was now so low that it made more economic sense to use by-mode trains that could run as electrics under wires and diesels everywhere else. The MML wires would only go as far north as Kettering with a branch off to Corby. Trains to Derby, Nottingham and Sheffield would be diesel powered.

HS2 Phase 2 planned for sometime in the early 2030's once a route through Nania has been agreed

This came as a surprise to many of us who remember that in 2015 the cost benefit ratio for MML electrification was stated as being between 1:4.7 or :7.4 (that's for every £1 spent the benefit would be between £4.70 and £7.40). Now Grayling claims it's only 0.8:1 (which should have read 1: 1.25, for every £1 spent you gained £1.25 - sorry to bang on about this). So what happened between 2015 and the 2017 Grayling statement? That is very clear:

HS2 would, by 2033 carry all Sheffield passengers that currently use East Midland trains.

That was the justification for cancelling MML electrification, just as Alistair Darling predicted. The Tories went into 2 general elections promising electric trains and improved services on the MML only to break those promises to shore up the weak economic case for HS2.

(In the accompanying cost benefit chart only the minimum benefits have been listed but it should be noted that the MML scheme ranged from £4.70 to £7.40. The HS2 figure was scrutinised in 2016 by the House of Commons Account Select Committee who found that it should be nearer £1.10).The true costs will emerge in time but many believe that Phase 1 between London and Birmingham will go so far over budget that Phase 2 will never be completed. (More of that in a following post).

But what of the future? 

What does this mean for East Midland trains? Grayling has already stated that HS2 and the West Coast franchise passenger service (WC) will be merged with first contracts to be signed as early as 2019. The consequence of this is that a significant number of MML passengers will be counted as HS2/WC passengers which will make East Midlands Trains loss making. The DfT and HS2/WC will move to deter passengers staying loyal to the MML route to St Pancras so a decrease in the number of MML trains would seem a likely outcome; the existing East Midlands services will not survive in their present form so our 2 trains an hour from Sheffield and similar 2 trains an hour from Nottingham will at best be cut back to 1 per hour .............. the Sheffield services may be cut back to Derby with Chesterfield, perhaps with the most to lose, served by Cross Country trains (though even these are under threat from HS2).

Even if my pessimistic view is proved wrong (and I don't think it will be) we will be condemned to a second class service on the MML. Already the trains are slowing:

The April and May times are factual whilst the 2033 times are a best possible time guess.

These timings are partly the result of  more intensive Thameslink train services south of Bedford resulting in slower running MML trains and more time spent changing trains at Derby. Electrification of all East Midlands trains to London was originally planned for 2019 and would have mitigated against these extended journey times.

Grayling says that new by-mode trains will perform just as well but does not say when these new trains will be available. The surprise is that the railway industry has not called Grayling out on this because the technology he proposes will add to operational costs and struggle to match the existing Meridian performance levels. The current East Midlands Meridian fleet were due to be cascaded to other routes with the InterCity electric trains currently working on the East Coast mainline (Kings Cross <> Leeds/Edinburgh etc) moving over to the MML. This will not now happen. The Meridians were built in 2003 and have an expected minimum life of 25 years so could be around on the MML well after HS2 is introduced in 2033. Can we believe Chris Grayling when he says that new by mode trains will replace them before 2033? I have serious doubts. Whatever the outcome we here in Derbyshire will suffer diesel fumes for years to come. Grayling tries to placate environmental criticism of the continued use of diesel by claiming that the hybrid trains will eventually be converted from electric/diesel to electric/hydrogen power yet this is a technology that is unproven in such an environment as the MML.

Data equates to Passenger journeys made in 2016 - 17

What we need in the East Midlands is a transport strategy that delivers what local people need and not counted as makeweights used to bolster an HS2 scheme that is seriously flawed. Only 27.3% of East Midland passengers travel to London, whilst a similar number stay within the regional boundary, basically short commuting or shopping trips to local centres. The main growth is seen on cross country routes to the North West, North East and West Midlands. Just how HS2 can improve these journey experiences is debatable once we factor in the necessary transfers to and from Toton. If anything, the passenger journey data underlines the case for re-opening the through route to Manchester via Matlock .......... I am sure that the cost benefit ratio for the old Midland route through the Peaks would make interesting reading. 

That 13% of East Midlands passengers are journeying to the West Midlands is significant (around 4.6 million per annum) though a fair proportion of these are travelling to and from the Leicester area which is bypassed by HS2. For East Midland passengers in the Derby area HS2 offers no real benefit for travel to Birmingham, the added mileage to Toton and extra time changing trains eating away at the fast HS2 journey time to Birmingham Curzon Street. There is claimed to be a benefit for Nottingham <> Birmingham passengers but here there is a much cheaper and immediately deliverable alternative ............... a fast connection utilising the freight branch between Sheet Stores Junction (near Long Eaton) and Burton, thence to Birmingham. This would be an additional service that would cut the current 74 minute journey to around 50 minutes by avoiding Derby. This offers a centre to centre journey time comparable to the 44 minutes claimed by HS2 for a fraction of the cost. We are talking of a couple of cascaded diesel multiple units to maintain an hourly service that could even offer new journey opportunities for the good folk of Burton. The resultant loss of journey opportunities on the Derby <> Birmingham route would also have to be addressed but there would be no loss of capacity as astute Nottingham passengers would avoid trains routed through Derby.

What next

The usual justification cited by those who promote HS2 is the claim that we desperately need more capacity. The next BelperStuff post should perhaps take a look at this and perhaps try and make sense of some of the doom-laden forecasts of spiraling HS2 costs. The bill so far is at least £2.7 billion and they haven't even started building anything yet.

Derbyshire Tory promises .... Bus services protected ..... No

BelperStuff has been following the progress of the new Tory regime in Matlock with ............ well ................ few expectations. One of the most intriguing promises was to reverse Labour's cuts to bus services which were honestly disclosed by Labour's Councillor Dean Collins in January of this year. He stated that because of government cuts the DCC would have to gradually cut subsidies from £4.2 million to £2.7 million over the 4 years up to 2020/21.New Blueprint for Derbyshire Buses. Don't forget that these are Tory government austerity cuts imposed on councils.

Bus interior scene - Eustace Pain Elliot Nash (Russell-Cotes Art Gallery - Bournemouth)

Derbyshire Tories reacted to this by making the reversal of "Labour" bus subsidy cuts a major election pledge in May 2017. Many people voted conservative because they were promised that by voting Tory they would be protecting bus services. Below is that very promise .......... number 10 in their manifesto:

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY MANIFESTO - DERBYSHIRE COUNTY COUNCIL 2017 Working for Derbyshire
We know that Derbyshire Community Transport Schemes and subsidised bus routes provide a vital service for vulnerable and isolated people, particularly in the county’s rural and former mining areas.
We will reverse Labour's cuts and restore important access to health and social care, shopping and social activities. 

Here is a link to the Derbyshire Tory 2017 manifesto

So what have the Tories done now that they are in office?

In a DCC press statement made in September the Tories announced that they were reversing £3m of the cuts: 

You can read the September 2017 press statement here

............ and this is the salient announcement:

Subsidised bus services to continue

Bus passengers in Derbyshire are to keep services paid for by us as plans to cut public transport funding are reviewed. It had been proposed to withdraw funding for around 144 subsidised services from October 2017. Following consultation where more than 90% of respondents said they disagreed with the plan, we have now agreed to provide £3m to continue funding some of these services.

The future of individual services has yet to be decided but we will be working closely with operators to see if some can be run commercially. We will also continue to review the whole of the bus network, streamlining less well-used services by reducing their frequency and joining up other services to reduce duplication.

There is another reference to the £3m in the revised budget announcement of July 2017:

• putting back £3.1m over two years (2018-2019 and 2019-2020) into public and community transport, reversing a previous budget saving and resulting in an additional £11.9m over the next five years you can find that here. 

Have the Tories made good on their manifesto pledge?

Not quite sure how putting an average annual sum of £1.55m can become an additional sum of £11.9m over the next 5 years ............ (surely 5 x 1.55 = 7.75) ............. must be Govian maths.

The total sum allocated for public transport in the Labour budget for 2017/18 was £13.7 million. It would be helpful if the new administration could publish their revised public transport budget figure for this current year and give an indication of what subsequent budgets might look like. The eagle-eyed amongst you have probably noticed that Councillor Collins was talking about a 4 year budget period (up to 2021) but the Tories are planning on a 3 year timescale (up to 2020). What do they propose in the 4th year? What is needed is a like for like comparison. That claim of an extra £11.9m over the next 5 years would equate to an additional annual figure of £2.38m. If we use Councillor Collins January 2017 press statement as a baseline then we could have expected the 2021/22 public transport budget to be around £12.2 but the revised Tory forecast would make that £14.58m. If inflation is included in the calculation then the 2021/22 budget figure would have to be in the region of £15m to keep parity with the 2017/18 figure. Obviously £3.1m over two years falls way short of the election manifesto promise.

Finally

A cynic might well say, "so what's new .......... Tories make big promises to get elected then do exactly the opposite once they have your vote".

The trouble is that they do it time after time, election after election. "oh yes ..... (the cynic would say) ............ but all parties renege on their election promises".

Maybe so but in this instance it would appear that Labour were more trustworthy than the Tories. In fact there are other Tory promises that have already been broken that will feature on this blog.

As usual BelperStuff tries to be a reliable source of information. If you spot any factual inaccuracy then make a comment below and if something needs correcting it will be corrected.

2017 General Election ..... Campaigning with Labour's Alison Martin at Belper Railway Station

The Labour candidate for the Mid-Derbyshire seat, Alison Martin was about early this morning campaigning at Belper Railway Station.

Alison Martin and Labour supporters campaigning at 07:30 this morning (Photo: BelperStuff)

Alison Martin

The message that Alison brought with her was one that Belper commuters well understood as they crammed onto the two coach train for their journey into Derby or Nottingham (sometimes it's just one carriage). The board being held up by Alison and her supporters puts Labour's pledge in a nutshell,

Alison adding:

"Ticket prices have gone up by 27% since 2010. Travelling by rail should be affordable and hassle free. Labour's plans for rail will improve things for passengers".

Below is the leaflet that was being handed out and Alison said that she stood by every word.

Labour Party Policy on Rail

The Labour pledges are very specific and deliverable, for instance the plan to cap rail fares can be implemented within current franchise arrangements: Labour promises to save average rail commuter £200 on a season ticket - article in the Guardian and ensuring safe staffing levels will be good news for Southern Rail passengers who have been plagued by the failure of Connex to provide an adequate service. Free Wi-Fi is enjoyed by first class passengers on some routes so extending this to all trains and all passengers is in keeping with the Labour slogan of "for the many not the few" ......... and it costs comparatively little. Modernisation is touched upon later in this post.

On a more general note it has become very clear that the Labour Party policy to renationalise rail is very popular with wide support, not only with voters but also with industry experts ............. as the Guardian comments in a recent article Labour renationalisation ............, "Academics have found private operators no more effective or efficient than public owners. Money is usually the key. The trains are safer and popular with buckets of public investment".

At the moment, those buckets of investment provide rich pickings for the 23 private companies who operate the rail franchises with an average annual profit margin of 3.4% (see here the Full Fact.org article) but research by the Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change in a report entitled "The Great Train Robbery", highlighted the fact that private rail operating companies invest very little of their own money, in fact earning a return of 147% (sadly the links now seem to be broken).This is what the Nobel prize winning economist Joseph E. Stiglitz named as "renting", where a private company is allowed to make a profit from public investment (just enter the name Stiglitz in the search box to the right of this blog to find out more).

If you've followed all those links you will now know that the rail network is already owned by the state (that's us) and that renationalisation of the passenger rail franchises would not cost a penny as the state would simply take over franchises as they come to an end. It would take a few years but you could find that some companies would choose to hand back the franchises early to avoid late franchise costs ( as was done by National Express who handed back the East Coast franchise which was then run by the state between 2009 and 2015). Privatised railway economics is an absolute minefield but using the state run East Coast franchise as a yardstick (annual average payment to the exchequer of £200 million, foregoing a profit of £19.9 million a year) we can see that renationalisation alone could make an extra £304 million a year available for investment in more carriages to reduce the chronic overcrowding, help lower fares or improve service levels and frequencies. If you factor in the whole edifice of franchise bidding (£5 million per company per bid) plus the extra levels of management involved in activities like financing and contract negotiation then the annual net savings could be far more than that.

Putting this into perspective, to add a single carriage to the trains that stop at  Belper on the Matlock service would cost at most £1.5 million to build and add additional costs per year for fuel and maintenance (back of fag packet calculation - somewhere in the region of £250k per year - if anyone can provide a more accurate figure then please leave a comment). The East Midlands franchise makes an annual average profit of £16.6 million which, if reinvested, would fund many more carriages and help pay to run them. 

It should be noted that environmental, engineering and safety standards have changed in the past 30 years (the trains operating the Matlock service were built in 1987) so a decision to increase capacity by simply adding a carriage could involve a more general refurbishment of the existing carriages -----  so it's not that simple.

However, the opportunities that follow from renationalisation are very apparent. Before anyone asks, these calculations do not include freight operations which play a minor part in the overall cost of railway provision and we haven't even mentioned the Tory failure on electrification but if you want to know more type the word "electrification" into the search box to the right. Then of course there is the big question of who exactly owns all these trains? Successive ministers of transport crow about the millions being invested in new trains but whose money are they spending?  

Tories try to defend plan to cut free bus passes

It didn't take long for Derbyshire Tories to respond to the Labour pledge to fight to keep free bus passes for pensioners and the disabled.

They are particularly upset at the petition organised by Glossopdale Labour Party which you can access here: https://www.change.org/p/hm-government-retain-free-bus-passes-and-winter-fuel-allowance-for-pensioners and to yesterday's BelperStuff post Tories plan to cut bus passes and brand this as Labour scaremongering.

The Derbyshire Conservative group has responded through their leader Barry Lewis and he says:

"It is the Government that is responsible for these allowances - not the County Council. And the Conservative Government has spelt out its intention in its 2015 Manifesto - it will protect pensioner benefits including the free bus pass, TV licences and Winter Fuel payments. You can't get clearer than that."

Now there are several reasons why we don't believe Barry Lewis; most notably that the leader of the Tories in the Local Government Association (LGA Tory Lord Gary Porter who has been elevated to a Baronetcy quite recently) is very close to current government thinking so when he says that free bus passes should be cut and the money "saved" spent on care for the elderly it will be safe to assume that this is being discussed in Westminster.

We can also look at the LGA saying that free bus passes are under threat as long ago as 2014 in a Sky news video from youtube:

The LGA spokesman in the video speaking about the threat to fee bus passes is Tory Councillor David Simmonds CBE.

Here is that link again for those who receive this blog by email without embedded video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_HpYEdELRM

So who is scaremongering now Barry Lewis?

I also note that Barry has complete faith in Tory manifesto promises:

" ............... the Conservative Government has spelt out its intention in its 2015 Manifesto - it will protect pensioner benefits including the free bus pass, TV licences and Winter Fuel payments. You can't get clearer than that."

Barry Lewis with the Tory minister who promised
 railway electrification then did not deliver it.

Oh what a trusting soul you are Barry. How have other Tory 2015 manifesto promises been honoured:

1. Promise not to cut child tax credits - forgotten when child tax credits cut.
2. Protect child benefit despite freeze - the reality is that the value of child benefit will have fallen 24% by 2021.
3. Promised to electrify railways (in East Midlands by 2019) - reality - many schemes cut back and we have no idea if the electrification between Derby and Sheffield will ever be started.
4. Tax free childcare by 2015 - still waiting.
5. Three days off with pay for volunteering - reality - shelved as too expensive.
6. Social care cap at £72,000 for elderly and younger disabled to be introduced in 2016 - shelved until 2020 but to be reviewed. look out for this one in the 2020 Tory manifesto.
7. No increase to NI for self employed - Hammond tried to increase this tax but a Tory rebellion has forced a rethink.
8. Have to include the big one from 2010, no increase to VAT - reality was that VAT was increased within months.
9. Protect the environment, most green government ever - the reality is more fracking and licenses for open cast coal mines.
10. Added 18/4/17 - David Cameron/Teresa May - No general election until 2020

If you need any more help Barry I suggest that you check this out: Daily Mirror article - 21 broken Tory promises

As Barry says, "......You can't get clearer than that."