Woods of Darney ......... Passchendaele remembered

Wounded, Passchendaele
Paul Nash (1889 - 1946) Manchester Art Gallery

A hundred years ago, November 1917 marked the end of the Battle of Passchendaele. It took place on the Western Front, over a span of 5 months near the Belgian city of Ypres in West Flanders. Hundreds of thousands sheltered in trenches made intolerable by incessant rain; wave after wave sent across the quagmire of no-mans' land to their deaths. The final tally will never be known but estimates put the death toll at 325,000 Allied and 260,000 German soldiers. 42,000 bodies have never been recovered. By the end of November the toll had reached 600,000. It is really difficult to comprehend the scale of such slaughter and the breathtaking callousness of the Allied Command who justified the battle by the belief that the German Empire would be hardest hit by such losses. The chronology and statistics of the battle are horrific as outlined here:

A brief description of the Battle of Passchendaele on the BBC website

A hundred years later and a group of Englishmen competed with a similar group of Germans, this time on the well manicured turf of Wembley Stadium in London. Yes it was a football match but the sport was incidental to the emotional sight of the two nations standing together through a minutes silence, both teams wearing armbands embroidered with poppies, the symbol of loss in war.

For many, like me, this was a significant moment following months of argument with football's ruling international body who maintained that the poppy was a political statement. Finally good sense prevailed the remembrance of those who fell in conflict is allowed on the football pitch. We will never know the full extent of our loss as numbers have never been agreed ............ this Wikipedia article makes grim reading but from whatever nation they came from, all are remembered.

The leaders of government and the armed forces who sent so many to their deaths were fools. WW1 was so shocking that it was dubbed the war to end all wars yet the lesson learned was soon forgotten with 260 major wars since 1918. Still it continues. Lions led by donkeys.

Downing Street Donkeys of 2017

And what of the current drove of donkeys? They fan the flames of war and then turn their backs on those displaced by their "strategic thinking". The UK has a vested interest in conflict as it is the second biggest exporter of military hardware in the world, second only to the USA ......... based on a 10 year average - 2016 Parliamentary report on UK arms industry. There are 170,000 UK jobs involved in the production of arms. It is no co-incidence that Liam Fox, long associated with international arms sales, has been chosen to lead the team given the task of securing trade deals with the rest of the world following Brexit, (Britain's trade policy is just the sound of one hand clapping). The British response to the resultant refugee crisis is disgusting (see here previous BelperStuff posts regarding the plight of refugees). Weaponry enables war. Without the four and a half million shells fired at Passchendaele the battle could not have been fought. Is it wrong to imagine that a concerted effort by society to turn swords into ploughshares is the best way to go? We have much more to gain by solving the evils of worldwide poverty and disease or the climate challenge and substitution of renewable for carbon based energy. The preoccupation with war and armaments must stop as this Mozambique soldier testifies here is the link:

Liam Fox is but one of the donkeys that sit around the cabinet table in Downing Street squabbling for position, arguing for a variety of Bexit flavours that nobody has voted for (Theresa May talking nonsense). 100 years after Passchendaele Europe is a united political entity except for a Britain that is intent on returning to a single nation status that will involve a deterioration in the standard of living of citizens, and a destabilising of international accord on the environment and the rights of individuals. It is only the rich who will benefit ......... because they always do. Our donkeys pursue increased international arms trade as a substitute for what is lost when we leave the EU; donkeys following the carrots dangled by financiers when they should be driven with sticks wielded by a well-informed electorate.

The Woods of Darney

Thinking of the lost 42,000 who slumber beneath the fields of Flanders reminds me of this song from Richard Thompson: For those who need the link. So many lives were lost as European society moved slowly but inexorably towards social democracy and the welfare state. Bloodshed can never be justified but what is embodied in the EU was hard won. There is a tide in history towards order and justice that cannot be halted though war, conflict and subjugation is so often employed by those who resist. The Woods of Darney are far to the south of Flanders but the two places are linked by the same struggle, muddy trenches and sacrifice.

Boris Johnson found time to visit Duffield this weekend

Thankfully Boris didn't say anything whilst he was visiting Derbyshire, contenting himself with hanging around Duffield on a zip wire.

Amazingly lifelike - Photo: ©Dawn Narborough

This Boris (created by the Buckley family) featured in the Duffield Arts Festival Scarecrow exhibition alongside 69 other scarecrows spread right across the village.

It would be interesting to substitute the Duffield Boris for the Bullingdon Boris at international summit meetings and see if Britain gains from the switch ............. probably wouldn't be worse off.

Derbyshire Tory promises .... Bus services protected ..... No

BelperStuff has been following the progress of the new Tory regime in Matlock with ............ well ................ few expectations. One of the most intriguing promises was to reverse Labour's cuts to bus services which were honestly disclosed by Labour's Councillor Dean Collins in January of this year. He stated that because of government cuts the DCC would have to gradually cut subsidies from £4.2 million to £2.7 million over the 4 years up to 2020/21.New Blueprint for Derbyshire Buses. Don't forget that these are Tory government austerity cuts imposed on councils.

Bus interior scene - Eustace Pain Elliot Nash (Russell-Cotes Art Gallery - Bournemouth)

Derbyshire Tories reacted to this by making the reversal of "Labour" bus subsidy cuts a major election pledge in May 2017. Many people voted conservative because they were promised that by voting Tory they would be protecting bus services. Below is that very promise .......... number 10 in their manifesto:

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY MANIFESTO - DERBYSHIRE COUNTY COUNCIL 2017 Working for Derbyshire
We know that Derbyshire Community Transport Schemes and subsidised bus routes provide a vital service for vulnerable and isolated people, particularly in the county’s rural and former mining areas.
We will reverse Labour's cuts and restore important access to health and social care, shopping and social activities. 

Here is a link to the Derbyshire Tory 2017 manifesto

So what have the Tories done now that they are in office?

In a DCC press statement made in September the Tories announced that they were reversing £3m of the cuts: 

You can read the September 2017 press statement here

............ and this is the salient announcement:

Subsidised bus services to continue

Bus passengers in Derbyshire are to keep services paid for by us as plans to cut public transport funding are reviewed. It had been proposed to withdraw funding for around 144 subsidised services from October 2017. Following consultation where more than 90% of respondents said they disagreed with the plan, we have now agreed to provide £3m to continue funding some of these services.

The future of individual services has yet to be decided but we will be working closely with operators to see if some can be run commercially. We will also continue to review the whole of the bus network, streamlining less well-used services by reducing their frequency and joining up other services to reduce duplication.

There is another reference to the £3m in the revised budget announcement of July 2017:

• putting back £3.1m over two years (2018-2019 and 2019-2020) into public and community transport, reversing a previous budget saving and resulting in an additional £11.9m over the next five years you can find that here. 

Have the Tories made good on their manifesto pledge?

Not quite sure how putting an average annual sum of £1.55m can become an additional sum of £11.9m over the next 5 years ............ (surely 5 x 1.55 = 7.75) ............. must be Govian maths.

The total sum allocated for public transport in the Labour budget for 2017/18 was £13.7 million. It would be helpful if the new administration could publish their revised public transport budget figure for this current year and give an indication of what subsequent budgets might look like. The eagle-eyed amongst you have probably noticed that Councillor Collins was talking about a 4 year budget period (up to 2021) but the Tories are planning on a 3 year timescale (up to 2020). What do they propose in the 4th year? What is needed is a like for like comparison. That claim of an extra £11.9m over the next 5 years would equate to an additional annual figure of £2.38m. If we use Councillor Collins January 2017 press statement as a baseline then we could have expected the 2021/22 public transport budget to be around £12.2 but the revised Tory forecast would make that £14.58m. If inflation is included in the calculation then the 2021/22 budget figure would have to be in the region of £15m to keep parity with the 2017/18 figure. Obviously £3.1m over two years falls way short of the election manifesto promise.

Finally

A cynic might well say, "so what's new .......... Tories make big promises to get elected then do exactly the opposite once they have your vote".

The trouble is that they do it time after time, election after election. "oh yes ..... (the cynic would say) ............ but all parties renege on their election promises".

Maybe so but in this instance it would appear that Labour were more trustworthy than the Tories. In fact there are other Tory promises that have already been broken that will feature on this blog.

As usual BelperStuff tries to be a reliable source of information. If you spot any factual inaccuracy then make a comment below and if something needs correcting it will be corrected.

Abraham Lincoln comments on the UK 2017 General Election

Some things never change and the British electorate has once again demonstrated this simple truth. The famous quote from Abraham Lincoln about the politics of 1860's America is a very apt description of what happened in the UK elections last week. Theresa May and her government chums, cheered on by a fact-free press have been found out by a younger electorate that have started to see through such arrogant foolishness. May has responded with the usual Tory trick of finding someone else to take the blame as her advisors fall on their swords but the solution of enlisting support from the DUP to prop up her minority in the House of Commons (will it be ConDUP or DUPCon?) is already floundering. Theresa May's response to the message from an increasing number of voters that the country does not want to be dragged to the right on Brexit and a whole raft of domestic issues is to cling to power via an alliance with the ultra right of Northern Ireland. That she also ignores the warnings of senior voices in her own party is the height of folly and will only result in an early demise.

The Tories campaigned with the apocryphal warning that voting for Jeremy Corbyn would result in a "Coalition of Chaos" but what we have ended up with is the "Chaos of ConDUP" They conjured up a vision akin to this painting.
Nicolas-Antoine Taunay Triumph of the Guillotine in Hell 1795 (Musee de la Ville, Musee Carnavalat, Paris)

We should not be surprised

The sheer folly of a Prime Minister calling an election when the only message she had for the electorate was, "trust me because I'm better than the other bloke who would be a disaster" had many of us shaking our heads in disbelief (and not just on the left). Trying to understand the logic of her thinking is difficult but we are left none the wiser after looking at her appearances on television and a whole slew of newspaper articles of which this piece in Premier, a Christian commentary website is typical. It reminds us of her vicarage upbringing where she obviously did not pay enough heed to her scriptures: A prudent person foresees danger and takes precautions. The simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences (Proverbs 22:3)

There is a way forward

What is now evident is that there is little appetite for the hard Brexit that May was proposing. That the Tory negotiation strategy was based upon the idea that the tenets of the World Trade Organisation were a reasonable alternative to the EU free market makes it obvious that they now have no idea how they will conduct themselves when confronted by the EU next week. They do however have a way out of this impasse if they take heed of what Labour's Keir Starmer (Brexit must be reset after the election result) and Yvette Cooper ( Guardian article referencing Labour ideas on how to proceed) propose. In a saner world we should expect a cross party consensus to emerge but it takes a wise leader to countenance such an idea ......... and we demonstrably do not have a wise head leading the country. Events may yet overtake us as the reality of the seriousness of the position we face sinks in during the first few days of negotiation.

Apophenia or Pareidolia

This must seem like a bit of a jump but bear with me. The working title for this post was "Apophenia"  which is the tendency to perceive patterns in random data or, as is determined by the word "pareidolia", the ability to see faces in clouds or the likeness of Jesus on a piece of toast. This is relevant because for some years we have been assailed by politicians and the media claiming that the ills of society can be blamed on the EU, the feckless poor and religious or ethnic minorities. Over many decades the fat finger of prejudice has relentlessly pointed at random skeins of data and, by suggesting spurious connections have managed to fool the majority of the people. (Do you see how artfully we have returned to Abraham Lincoln?). The significance of this 2017 general election is that a fresh generation of voters have joined those of us who have never bought in to the right wing myths such as the left is economically incompetent or that immigration has caused the housing crisis, (or the problems of the NHS  ............ or ........... well fill this in yourself). This unblinkered alliance of the objectively minded electorate has finally reached the tipping point of a majority. The subjective views of the right which promote illogical ideas of cause and effect could only muster 45% (Tory 42%, DUP 0.9%, UKIP 1.8%, plus sundry others 0.5%) whilst the so-called alliance of the left gained a 53.2% vote share (Labour 40%, SNP 3%, Lib Dem 7.4%. PC 0.5%, Green 1.6%). It is my contention that those of us on the left (and I do include Lib Dems in this as they have now learnt the lesson of supping with the devil) see the data for what it is and do not swallow the false assumptions that fuel the bias of the right.

In conclusion 

As usual BelperStuff concludes this post with a carefully chosen video that is supposed to add something to the debate. In researching for this piece I came across this delightful song by the Canadian group Tasseomancy, busking in Shoreditch with their song, Apophenia. Here is the link for those who cannot see the embedded video. If you like it just let the video run on to their track, "Diana".or sit back and enjoy another version of "Apophenia" on their album, Palm Wine Revisited.

2017 General Election ..... Campaigning with Labour's Alison Martin at Belper Railway Station

The Labour candidate for the Mid-Derbyshire seat, Alison Martin was about early this morning campaigning at Belper Railway Station.

Alison Martin and Labour supporters campaigning at 07:30 this morning (Photo: BelperStuff)

Alison Martin

The message that Alison brought with her was one that Belper commuters well understood as they crammed onto the two coach train for their journey into Derby or Nottingham (sometimes it's just one carriage). The board being held up by Alison and her supporters puts Labour's pledge in a nutshell,

Alison adding:

"Ticket prices have gone up by 27% since 2010. Travelling by rail should be affordable and hassle free. Labour's plans for rail will improve things for passengers".

Below is the leaflet that was being handed out and Alison said that she stood by every word.

Labour Party Policy on Rail

The Labour pledges are very specific and deliverable, for instance the plan to cap rail fares can be implemented within current franchise arrangements: Labour promises to save average rail commuter £200 on a season ticket - article in the Guardian and ensuring safe staffing levels will be good news for Southern Rail passengers who have been plagued by the failure of Connex to provide an adequate service. Free Wi-Fi is enjoyed by first class passengers on some routes so extending this to all trains and all passengers is in keeping with the Labour slogan of "for the many not the few" ......... and it costs comparatively little. Modernisation is touched upon later in this post.

On a more general note it has become very clear that the Labour Party policy to renationalise rail is very popular with wide support, not only with voters but also with industry experts ............. as the Guardian comments in a recent article Labour renationalisation ............, "Academics have found private operators no more effective or efficient than public owners. Money is usually the key. The trains are safer and popular with buckets of public investment".

At the moment, those buckets of investment provide rich pickings for the 23 private companies who operate the rail franchises with an average annual profit margin of 3.4% (see here the Full Fact.org article) but research by the Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change in a report entitled "The Great Train Robbery", highlighted the fact that private rail operating companies invest very little of their own money, in fact earning a return of 147% (sadly the links now seem to be broken).This is what the Nobel prize winning economist Joseph E. Stiglitz named as "renting", where a private company is allowed to make a profit from public investment (just enter the name Stiglitz in the search box to the right of this blog to find out more).

If you've followed all those links you will now know that the rail network is already owned by the state (that's us) and that renationalisation of the passenger rail franchises would not cost a penny as the state would simply take over franchises as they come to an end. It would take a few years but you could find that some companies would choose to hand back the franchises early to avoid late franchise costs ( as was done by National Express who handed back the East Coast franchise which was then run by the state between 2009 and 2015). Privatised railway economics is an absolute minefield but using the state run East Coast franchise as a yardstick (annual average payment to the exchequer of £200 million, foregoing a profit of £19.9 million a year) we can see that renationalisation alone could make an extra £304 million a year available for investment in more carriages to reduce the chronic overcrowding, help lower fares or improve service levels and frequencies. If you factor in the whole edifice of franchise bidding (£5 million per company per bid) plus the extra levels of management involved in activities like financing and contract negotiation then the annual net savings could be far more than that.

Putting this into perspective, to add a single carriage to the trains that stop at  Belper on the Matlock service would cost at most £1.5 million to build and add additional costs per year for fuel and maintenance (back of fag packet calculation - somewhere in the region of £250k per year - if anyone can provide a more accurate figure then please leave a comment). The East Midlands franchise makes an annual average profit of £16.6 million which, if reinvested, would fund many more carriages and help pay to run them. 

It should be noted that environmental, engineering and safety standards have changed in the past 30 years (the trains operating the Matlock service were built in 1987) so a decision to increase capacity by simply adding a carriage could involve a more general refurbishment of the existing carriages -----  so it's not that simple.

However, the opportunities that follow from renationalisation are very apparent. Before anyone asks, these calculations do not include freight operations which play a minor part in the overall cost of railway provision and we haven't even mentioned the Tory failure on electrification but if you want to know more type the word "electrification" into the search box to the right. Then of course there is the big question of who exactly owns all these trains? Successive ministers of transport crow about the millions being invested in new trains but whose money are they spending?  

2017 General Election ............... Tories on the slide with 8 days to go

The General Election 2017 was initially dubbed as the one that nobody wanted and Theresa May was justifiably criticised for doing a u-turn on her pledge that this government would not go to the polls until 2020. There seemed little enthusiasm from party activists and the voters were particularly unengaged. This was summed up perfectly by  Brenda from Bristol who at the time spoke for the majority of the country when she found out that a snap election had been called:

Pumped up by fawning newspaper articles and sycophantic supporters the prime minister was tempted by poll ratings that promised a huge Tory majority .......... it was an opportunity too good to miss. Looking ahead to the political climate of 2020 with anticipated Conservative poll ratings likely to be negative in the post-brexit shrinking economy, compounded by 10 years of disastrous austerity, going for an election in 2017 was a Tory no-brainer. All Theresa had to do was keep her mouth shut so that the obvious paucity of Tory policies and ideas was not found out ..........  but .......... being so far ahead of Labour in the ratings and believing their own Corbyn bashing propaganda to be true the chance to make further cuts in government provision of services proved to be irresistible.

Make no mistake about the dogmatism that drives the thinking behind the 2017 Tory election manifesto ............ they are now getting close to the very heart of what's left of the welfare state ......... they want to rid the country of the principle of collective responsibility. The noble post war consensus that accepted the role of taxation in the provision of health services, social care, education, scientific research and improvements in infrastructure is once again under attack from the far right.

Then it all started to unravel. The public perception of  Theresa May gradually turned from strength and stability to one of uncertainty and indecision as the u-turns started to pile up to the point where she was going in ever decreasing circles. As the Tory contender became increasingly unhinged the public, and more significantly the press looked towards the other camp with a more open mind. Were Labour and Corbyn as bad as the Tories made them out to be? What they found was a well thought out manifesto which is more Maynard Keynes than Marx and a Labour leader who was coming across as being ........... well ........... electable. With bastions of the establishment such as David Dimbleby  stating that Jeremy has not been treated fairly by the press it is evident that the tide has turned; a fact underlined by an article in today's Times Poll predicts shock losses for Theresa May's Tories at the election. I did not go behind the Times paywall (never give Murdoch even a single penny) but it was possible to lift this predictive chart:

How accurate this proves to be will only be known some time early on June 9th but such a forecast would have been unthinkable even a week ago. This is a tantalising glimpse of a possible coalition of the left with Labour not just avoiding melt down but actually increasing its seats in parliament. Please let this be true .......... though it pays to keep your feet on the ground and this article in the Guardian commenting on the YouGov poll puts it into perspective.

Why is it possible that we can contemplate Tories losing their majority?

Put simply the voters are starting to realise that Corbyn and Labour are not as bad as the media would have them believe and that Tories and May are far less attractive a proposition once the spotlight is turned upon them. The 8th June could become the defining example of the meaning of the word  "hubris" .............. or perhaps it's this: Anti Theresa May track "Liar Liar GE2017" nears top of official singles chart

Apparently if you download this track from iTunes or Amazon (and probably other places that an old fart like me would never have heard of) you donate to both the Peoples Assembly against austerity and to foodbanks. Couldn't resist so I paid my 99p. (A link to Liar Liar GE2017 for those who receive this post by email)

2017 General Election -------- BelperStuff has to eat humble pie

Those of you who have followed this blog for the past two years know that BelperStuff has in the odd post been critical of Jeremy Corbyn. A generous view would be that the blog tries to be even handed and it is in that spirit that these words are being written.

2017 Labour Party Manifesto

I've read it and am very impressed. The document is a reaffirmation of the Welfare State and the best part is that it is not an attempt to put back the clock but contains plans to re-invigorate state provision of services and infrastructure for the twenty-first century. The costings are credible and bear the hallmark of honesty when compared with the flashy eye-catching but uncosted pledges contained in the Conservative Manifesto. Don't take my word for it, follow this link to the Labour Manifesto.

The temptation to add the link to the Tory Manifesto has been deemed somewhat premature because Theresa May is busy rewriting it ............... tearing up their main policy on the funding of Social Care. The Tories have not and will never get this right because they have abandoned the simple principle that has underwritten the delivery of health and care services for the past 70 years, that we, as a society undertake to collectively pay for the wellbeing of the 65 million who live here. We don't need tax cuts, we don't need the profit motive as an incentive in the NHS and we don't need a "dementia tax". There is a refreshing alternative: Healthcare for all. I freely admit that it has taken the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party for such a manifesto to be produced. Reading through the document I was struck by the idea that all the ideas are positive ........ there is no desire to exclude or to deny or to point the finger of blame at anyone. Put simply, the inspiration is a love of people. It made me think of The Housemartins, Caravan of Love. Stand up and fight and join the caravan of love. (I am reminded of the Christians on the Left and the fringe meeting I attended at the Liverpool conference last year).

Blogposts not yet written will look at other aspects of the manifesto. Of interest are the plans to re-nationalise infrastructure services which are well thought out and costed. The press tried to claim that privatised industries would be bought back but careful reading of the manifesto shows that what Labour intends is to provide a state alternative, notably local publicly owned energy companies and there are obviously ways for the state to reclaim passenger rail services at zero cost. As I said, more on that later.